War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The military government is holding a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it took control in a takeover, which sparked widespread opposition and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the freedoms of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for disrupting or opposing the election under a new law which carries severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a film promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, adding that resistance forces have made warnings asking people to shun the polls.

The military has been engaged on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year after relentless airstrikes made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will compete only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into phases, the authorities can change their approach if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has called for political dialogue to come before any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not intended for the outside world," a military representative stated at a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "progress toward democracy".